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Cyber Monday, the first Monday after Thanksgiving, has traditionally marked the start of the online holiday shopping period, the most important time of the year for Amazon and eBay. Amazon, which launched its Black Friday deals page earlier this week, is expected to set the pace.
"Amazon has doing tremendously well all year and continues to show strong double-digit growth," Patti Freeman-Evans, research director at Forrester, told TheStreet. "We expect to continue to see them do well."
During the third quarter, even as U.S. consumers emerged bleary-eyed from the recession, Amazon still reported sales of $5.45-billion, an increase of 28% on the same period in 2008.
Over the last few years the Seattle-based firm has earned a reputation for customer service, efficient shipping and a highly navigable Web site, factors that should help lure users from traditional retailers this holiday season.
The National Retail Federation (NRF), for example, has forecast a 1 per cent year-over-year decline in overall sales this holiday season, as ongoing uncertainty about job security and housing takes its toll on consumer confidence.
The Internet, however, will be retail's shining light. In another survey, the NRF found that almost half of online retailers expect their holiday sales to increase at 15 per cent over last year, with a third predicting up to 14 per cent growth. Tellingly, just one in five online retailers expects sales to flatten or decline.
Forrester forecasts online retail sales of $44.7-billion between November and December, an 8 per cent increase on the same period last year. This figure includes Amazon's sales, but not consumer-to-consumer businesses such as eBay, which recently gave a disappointing holiday forecast.
Amazon is nonetheless feeling the analyst love. Merrill/BofA, for example, recently increased its Amazon numbers through 2011, citing a continued shift toward online shopping this holiday season. The analyst firm gave the retailer a buy rating and raised the company's price target to $140.
"I think [this holiday season] is going to be huge for Amazon," Candace Corlett, president of WSL Strategic Retail told TheStreet, pointing to her firm's quarterly consumer surveys. "We're seeing more and more upper-middle income people and the affluent turning to the Internet for terrific deals."
